SEASONALITY

“We cannot see the future, but we can see the past.”

It is important to note that seasonality is not the holy grail.   It is not a rule nor does it predict the future.   It does not guarantee that what happened in the past will happen in the future.   It does provide a valuable viewpoint of average given moves over a period of time in history.   It is not a tool on its own, however, by using this information along with basic technical analysis, risk management and a dash of common sense, it can produce a powerful and unbiased approach across a variety of markets.

  • Stocks

The Journal of Finance says “Stocks tend to have relatively high (or low) returns every year in the same calendar month.  The pattern is independent of size, industry, earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year.   The results are consistent with the existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.”  Journal of Finance 45:881-898,1990

  • Commodities

Commodity futures markets are cyclical in nature and are very supply/demand driven due to growing and planting seasons, cycles and trends in consumption, weather, crop harvesting, as well as global storage and shipping operations.

  • Currencies

Currencies, or the foreign exchange market is the largest of all markets combined.   Large amounts of money exchange hands globally across governments, central banks, institutions, corporations, and hedge fund managers.  These markets can too follow reliable seasonal patterns that can be attributed to economic cycles, holidays, fiscal policy, tax seasons, and fund flow to due security purchases and sells.

SeasonalSwingTrader identifies historical seasonal trends and market cycles on up to 40+ years of historical market data and delivers quality, actionable trade ideas that put probability in your favor.   Historical analysis combined with historically reliable chart patterns can help put the odds in your favor.

SeasonalSwingTrader gives you advance warning of our alerts, so you can continue to be a proactive and strategic trader.

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading futures, options, futures, forex, and securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, Securities and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, stocks, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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